SOPA forecasts tighter soybean supply, robust meal exports for Oil Year 2024-25

K K Jha
Indore: The Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) has unveiled its supply and demand projections for the 2024-25 oil year (October 2024 to September 2025, up to July 2025), highlighting a constrained soybean market and strong soybean meal exports, signaling potential price pressures and supply challenges ahead.
According to SOPA’s report, the total soybean crop for 2024-25 is estimated at 134.76 lakh tons, a decline from 142.81 lakh tons in 2023-24. This includes a carryover stock of 8.94 lakh tons (down from 24.07 lakh tons) and an all-India crop of 125.82 lakh tons (up from 118.74 lakh tons). Imports have dropped sharply to 0.05 lakh tons from 6.25 lakh tons, with 13 lakh tons reserved for sowing, leaving 121.81 lakh tons available for crushing, compared to 136.06 lakh tons last year. From October 2024 to July 2025, soybean arrivals are projected at 96 lakh tons (down from 107 lakh tons), with crushing estimated at 96 lakh tons (down from 104.50 lakh tons). Direct use is slightly up at 4.55 lakh tons (from 4.15 lakh tons), and exports are marginally higher at 0.10 lakh tons (from 0.08 lakh tons). Stocks held by plants, traders, and farmers as of August 1, 2025, are expected to be 15.13 lakh tons, a significant drop from 27.11 lakh tons last year.
In the report, SOPA has cautioned that the carryover stock on October 1, 2025, will be notably lower than in the previous year, indicating a tighter supply scenario.
On the other hand, SOPA has revised its soybean meal export forecast upward by 1.50 lakh tons to 18.50 lakh tons from 17 lakh tons, driven by stronger-than-expected global demand. This has led to an increase in soybean crushing estimates to 113 lakh tons from 110 lakh tons. From October 2024 to July 2025, soybean meal production is projected at 75.75 lakh tons (down from 82.46 lakh tons), with exports at 17.08 lakh tons (down from 19.24 lakh tons).
According to the report, domestic food consumption is slightly higher at 6.85 lakh tons (up from 6.65 lakh tons), while feed consumption is lower at 52 lakh tons (down from 56 lakh tons). The soybean meal stock as of August 1, 2025, is estimated at 1.17 lakh tons, compared to 1.98 lakh tons last year.
SOPA ED D N Pathak said that “the significant reduction in carryover stocks and lower soybean availability could tighten the market, potentially driving price volatility.” Meanwhile, the robust export performance of soybean meal underscores India’s competitive edge globally, but the depleted stocks may challenge domestic supply chains. Industry players are urged to stay vigilant on market trends and stock levels through the season.